高校志愿录取机会与梯度评估模型 数据预览

静态样例
{
  "DataStatus": {
    "RequestParameter": "{\"province\": \"江苏\", \"subject_type\": \"物理类\", \"score\": 635, \"rank\": 12000, \"batch\": \"本科批\", \"top_n\": 10, \"include_explanation\": false, \"prefer_local\": false, \"college_provinces\": [\"江苏\", \"上海\"], \"target_colleges\": [\"南京大学\", \"东南大学\", \"南京航空航天大学\", \"南京理工大学\", \"苏州大学\", \"南京邮电大学\", \"河海大学\", \"江南大学\", \"上海大学\", \"华东理工大学\"], \"year\": 2026, \"local_batch_name\": \"本科批\"}",
    "StatusCode": 100,
    "StatusDescription": "预测成功",
    "ResponseDateTime": "2026-10-15 11:40:31.437",
    "DataTotalCount": 10,
    "RequestId": "4c034183-8a67-4b2e-b2fe-730f49b66c54"
  },
  "Data": {
    "predictions": [
      {
        "college_name": "苏州大学",
        "admission_probability": 0.98900462962962965,
        "evidence": {
          "recent_3y_min_score": [
            600.0,
            598.0
          ],
          "score_gap": 36.400000000000091,
          "score_gap_original": 35.0,
          "province_line_gap": 172.0,
          "is_985": false,
          "is_211": true,
          "is_dual_class": true,
          "college_rank": 42,
          "plan_enrollment": 3111,
          "plan_coverage_ratio": 1.0,
          "student_rank": null,
          "historical_min_rank": 34888.0,
          "rank_gap": 0.0,
          "rank_ratio": 0.0,
          "rank_missing": true,
          "rank_source": "missing",
          "rank_data_year": null,
          "score_source": "request",
          "score_data_year": null,
          "is_local": true,
          "history_year_count": 3,
          "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
          "control_line_year": null,
          "recent_min_trend": 3.0,
          "probability_source": "binary_college_fallback",
          "aggregation_mode": "college_fallback",
          "historical_score_summary": {
            "years": [
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              2024,
              2025
            ],
            "latest_min_score": 600.0,
            "recent_min_score_average": 598.0,
            "student_score": 635.0,
            "gap_to_latest_min": 35.0,
            "gap_to_recent_min_average": 37.0
          }
        },
        "shap_explanation": null,
        "recommendation": "录取概率高",
        "long_recommendation": "当前录取参考概率较高,按近年录取情况看,你的分数处于相对安全区间。你的分数高于近三年最低线35分,也高于近三年均值线37分。本次按院校层历史录取数据估算。",
        "major_name": null,
        "tier_name": null,
        "tier_label": null,
        "tier_min_probability": null,
        "education_level": "bachelor",
        "coverage_level": "full",
        "data_through_year": 2025,
        "risk_label": "保",
        "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
        "chance_score": 0.98900462962962965,
        "interpretation": "历史条件下机会较高,建议作为稳妥梯度参考。",
        "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和院校历史数据范围内,模型给出 0.99 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数高于最新可用最低线 35 分,高于近年最低线均值 37 分。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
        "historical_years": [
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          2024,
          2025
        ],
        "plan_coverage": {
          "status": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
          "ratio": null,
          "matched_plan_rows": null,
          "covered_plan_total": null,
          "school_plan_total": null
        },
        "fallback_path": {
          "applied": false,
          "requested_level": "college",
          "effective_level": "college",
          "strategy": "college_fallback",
          "reason": null
        },
        "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
      },
      {
        "college_name": "江南大学",
        "admission_probability": 0.98656898656898662,
        "evidence": {
          "recent_3y_min_score": [
            604.0,
            601.0
          ],
          "score_gap": 33.100000000000023,
          "score_gap_original": 31.0,
          "province_line_gap": 172.0,
          "is_985": false,
          "is_211": true,
          "is_dual_class": true,
          "college_rank": 57,
          "plan_enrollment": 837,
          "plan_coverage_ratio": 1.0,
          "student_rank": null,
          "historical_min_rank": 31362.0,
          "rank_gap": 0.0,
          "rank_ratio": 0.0,
          "rank_missing": true,
          "rank_source": "missing",
          "rank_data_year": null,
          "score_source": "request",
          "score_data_year": null,
          "is_local": true,
          "history_year_count": 3,
          "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
          "control_line_year": null,
          "recent_min_trend": 3.0,
          "probability_source": "binary_college_fallback",
          "aggregation_mode": "college_fallback",
          "historical_score_summary": {
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              2024,
              2025
            ],
            "latest_min_score": 604.0,
            "recent_min_score_average": 601.0,
            "student_score": 635.0,
            "gap_to_latest_min": 31.0,
            "gap_to_recent_min_average": 34.0
          }
        },
        "shap_explanation": null,
        "recommendation": "录取概率高",
        "long_recommendation": "当前录取参考概率较高,按近年录取情况看,你的分数处于相对安全区间。你的分数高于近三年最低线31分,也高于近三年均值线34分。本次按院校层历史录取数据估算。",
        "major_name": null,
        "tier_name": null,
        "tier_label": null,
        "tier_min_probability": null,
        "education_level": "bachelor",
        "coverage_level": "full",
        "data_through_year": 2025,
        "risk_label": "保",
        "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
        "chance_score": 0.98656898656898662,
        "interpretation": "历史条件下机会较高,建议作为稳妥梯度参考。",
        "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和院校历史数据范围内,模型给出 0.99 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数高于最新可用最低线 31 分,高于近年最低线均值 34 分。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
        "historical_years": [
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ],
        "plan_coverage": {
          "status": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
          "ratio": null,
          "matched_plan_rows": null,
          "covered_plan_total": null,
          "school_plan_total": null
        },
        "fallback_path": {
          "applied": false,
          "requested_level": "college",
          "effective_level": "college",
          "strategy": "college_fallback",
          "reason": null
        },
        "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
      },
      {
        "college_name": "南京邮电大学",
        "admission_probability": 0.96408839779005528,
        "evidence": {
          "recent_3y_min_score": [
            608.0,
            608.33333333333337
          ],
          "score_gap": 26.766666666666652,
          "score_gap_original": 27.0,
          "province_line_gap": 172.0,
          "is_985": false,
          "is_211": false,
          "is_dual_class": true,
          "college_rank": 122,
          "plan_enrollment": 3368,
          "plan_coverage_ratio": 1.0,
          "student_rank": null,
          "historical_min_rank": 27965.0,
          "rank_gap": 0.0,
          "rank_ratio": 0.0,
          "rank_missing": true,
          "rank_source": "missing",
          "rank_data_year": null,
          "score_source": "request",
          "score_data_year": null,
          "is_local": true,
          "history_year_count": 3,
          "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
          "control_line_year": null,
          "recent_min_trend": -5.0,
          "probability_source": "binary_college_fallback",
          "aggregation_mode": "college_fallback",
          "historical_score_summary": {
            "years": [
              2023,
              2024,
              2025
            ],
            "latest_min_score": 608.0,
            "recent_min_score_average": 608.33333333333337,
            "student_score": 635.0,
            "gap_to_latest_min": 27.0,
            "gap_to_recent_min_average": 26.666666666666629
          }
        },
        "shap_explanation": null,
        "recommendation": "录取概率高",
        "long_recommendation": "当前录取参考概率较高,按近年录取情况看,你的分数处于相对安全区间。你的分数高于近三年最低线27分,也高于近三年均值线26.7分。本次按院校层历史录取数据估算。",
        "major_name": null,
        "tier_name": null,
        "tier_label": null,
        "tier_min_probability": null,
        "education_level": "bachelor",
        "coverage_level": "full",
        "data_through_year": 2025,
        "risk_label": "保",
        "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
        "chance_score": 0.96408839779005528,
        "interpretation": "历史条件下机会较高,建议作为稳妥梯度参考。",
        "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和院校历史数据范围内,模型给出 0.96 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数高于最新可用最低线 27 分,高于近年最低线均值 26.7 分。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
        "historical_years": [
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ],
        "plan_coverage": {
          "status": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
          "ratio": null,
          "matched_plan_rows": null,
          "covered_plan_total": null,
          "school_plan_total": null
        },
        "fallback_path": {
          "applied": false,
          "requested_level": "college",
          "effective_level": "college",
          "strategy": "college_fallback",
          "reason": null
        },
        "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
      },
      {
        "college_name": "华东理工大学",
        "admission_probability": 0.79381926018417359,
        "evidence": {
          "recent_3y_min_score": [
            620.0,
            624.0
          ],
          "score_gap": 12.200000000000045,
          "score_gap_original": 15.0,
          "province_line_gap": 172.0,
          "is_985": false,
          "is_211": true,
          "is_dual_class": true,
          "college_rank": 38,
          "plan_enrollment": 236,
          "plan_coverage_ratio": 1.0,
          "student_rank": null,
          "historical_min_rank": 19004.0,
          "rank_gap": 0.0,
          "rank_ratio": 0.0,
          "rank_missing": true,
          "rank_source": "missing",
          "rank_data_year": null,
          "score_source": "request",
          "score_data_year": null,
          "is_local": false,
          "history_year_count": 3,
          "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
          "control_line_year": null,
          "recent_min_trend": -10.0,
          "probability_source": "binary_college_fallback",
          "aggregation_mode": "college_fallback",
          "historical_score_summary": {
            "years": [
              2023,
              2024,
              2025
            ],
            "latest_min_score": 620.0,
            "recent_min_score_average": 624.0,
            "student_score": 635.0,
            "gap_to_latest_min": 15.0,
            "gap_to_recent_min_average": 11.0
          }
        },
        "shap_explanation": null,
        "recommendation": "需要注意梯度,但成功率较高",
        "long_recommendation": "当前录取参考概率中等偏高,但仍需关注同分段竞争和院校梯度波动。你的分数高于近三年最低线15分,也高于近三年均值线11分。本次按院校层历史录取数据估算。",
        "major_name": null,
        "tier_name": null,
        "tier_label": null,
        "tier_min_probability": null,
        "education_level": "bachelor",
        "coverage_level": "full",
        "data_through_year": 2025,
        "risk_label": "稳",
        "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
        "chance_score": 0.79381926018417359,
        "interpretation": "历史条件下机会中等偏高,建议结合其他志愿形成合理梯度。",
        "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和院校历史数据范围内,模型给出 0.79 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数高于最新可用最低线 15 分,高于近年最低线均值 11 分。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
        "historical_years": [
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ],
        "plan_coverage": {
          "status": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
          "ratio": null,
          "matched_plan_rows": null,
          "covered_plan_total": null,
          "school_plan_total": null
        },
        "fallback_path": {
          "applied": false,
          "requested_level": "college",
          "effective_level": "college",
          "strategy": "college_fallback",
          "reason": null
        },
        "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
      },
      {
        "college_name": "河海大学",
        "admission_probability": 0.75942639390292843,
        "evidence": {
          "recent_3y_min_score": [
            626.0,
            620.66666666666663
          ],
          "score_gap": 12.733333333333348,
          "score_gap_original": 9.0,
          "province_line_gap": 172.0,
          "is_985": false,
          "is_211": true,
          "is_dual_class": true,
          "college_rank": 65,
          "plan_enrollment": 1009,
          "plan_coverage_ratio": 1.0,
          "student_rank": null,
          "historical_min_rank": 15099.0,
          "rank_gap": 0.0,
          "rank_ratio": 0.0,
          "rank_missing": true,
          "rank_source": "missing",
          "rank_data_year": null,
          "score_source": "request",
          "score_data_year": null,
          "is_local": true,
          "history_year_count": 3,
          "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
          "control_line_year": null,
          "recent_min_trend": 13.0,
          "probability_source": "binary_college_fallback",
          "aggregation_mode": "college_fallback",
          "historical_score_summary": {
            "years": [
              2023,
              2024,
              2025
            ],
            "latest_min_score": 626.0,
            "recent_min_score_average": 620.66666666666663,
            "student_score": 635.0,
            "gap_to_latest_min": 9.0,
            "gap_to_recent_min_average": 14.333333333333371
          }
        },
        "shap_explanation": null,
        "recommendation": "需要注意梯度,但成功率较高",
        "long_recommendation": "当前录取参考概率中等偏高,但仍需关注同分段竞争和院校梯度波动。你的分数高于近三年最低线9分,也高于近三年均值线14.3分。本次按院校层历史录取数据估算。",
        "major_name": null,
        "tier_name": null,
        "tier_label": null,
        "tier_min_probability": null,
        "education_level": "bachelor",
        "coverage_level": "full",
        "data_through_year": 2025,
        "risk_label": "稳",
        "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
        "chance_score": 0.75942639390292843,
        "interpretation": "历史条件下机会中等偏高,建议结合其他志愿形成合理梯度。",
        "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和院校历史数据范围内,模型给出 0.76 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数高于最新可用最低线 9 分,高于近年最低线均值 14.3 分。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
        "historical_years": [
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ],
        "plan_coverage": {
          "status": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
          "ratio": null,
          "matched_plan_rows": null,
          "covered_plan_total": null,
          "school_plan_total": null
        },
        "fallback_path": {
          "applied": false,
          "requested_level": "college",
          "effective_level": "college",
          "strategy": "college_fallback",
          "reason": null
        },
        "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
      },
      {
        "college_name": "上海大学",
        "admission_probability": 0.64372631158986615,
        "evidence": {
          "recent_3y_min_score": [
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            629.33333333333337
          ],
          "score_gap": 5.7666666666666515,
          "score_gap_original": 6.0,
          "province_line_gap": 172.0,
          "is_985": false,
          "is_211": true,
          "is_dual_class": true,
          "college_rank": 67,
          "plan_enrollment": 126,
          "plan_coverage_ratio": 1.0,
          "student_rank": null,
          "historical_min_rank": 13359.0,
          "rank_gap": 0.0,
          "rank_ratio": 0.0,
          "rank_missing": true,
          "rank_source": "missing",
          "rank_data_year": null,
          "score_source": "request",
          "score_data_year": null,
          "is_local": false,
          "history_year_count": 3,
          "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
          "control_line_year": null,
          "recent_min_trend": -3.0,
          "probability_source": "binary_college_fallback",
          "aggregation_mode": "college_fallback",
          "historical_score_summary": {
            "years": [
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              2024,
              2025
            ],
            "latest_min_score": 629.0,
            "recent_min_score_average": 629.33333333333337,
            "student_score": 635.0,
            "gap_to_latest_min": 6.0,
            "gap_to_recent_min_average": 5.6666666666666288
          }
        },
        "shap_explanation": null,
        "recommendation": "需要注意梯度,但成功率较高",
        "long_recommendation": "当前录取参考概率中等偏高,但仍需关注同分段竞争和院校梯度波动。你的分数高于近三年最低线6分,也高于近三年均值线5.7分。本次按院校层历史录取数据估算。",
        "major_name": null,
        "tier_name": null,
        "tier_label": null,
        "tier_min_probability": null,
        "education_level": "bachelor",
        "coverage_level": "full",
        "data_through_year": 2025,
        "risk_label": "稳",
        "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
        "chance_score": 0.64372631158986615,
        "interpretation": "历史条件下机会中等偏高,建议结合其他志愿形成合理梯度。",
        "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和院校历史数据范围内,模型给出 0.64 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数高于最新可用最低线 6 分,高于近年最低线均值 5.7 分。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
        "historical_years": [
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          2024,
          2025
        ],
        "plan_coverage": {
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          "ratio": null,
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          "covered_plan_total": null,
          "school_plan_total": null
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        "fallback_path": {
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          "requested_level": "college",
          "effective_level": "college",
          "strategy": "college_fallback",
          "reason": null
        },
        "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
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      {
        "college_name": "南京理工大学",
        "admission_probability": 0.36543654365436545,
        "evidence": {
          "recent_3y_min_score": [
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            635.0
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          "score_gap": -1.2000000000000455,
          "score_gap_original": -4.0,
          "province_line_gap": 172.0,
          "is_985": false,
          "is_211": true,
          "is_dual_class": true,
          "college_rank": 37,
          "plan_enrollment": 633,
          "plan_coverage_ratio": 1.0,
          "student_rank": null,
          "historical_min_rank": 8362.0,
          "rank_gap": 0.0,
          "rank_ratio": 0.0,
          "rank_missing": true,
          "rank_source": "missing",
          "rank_data_year": null,
          "score_source": "request",
          "score_data_year": null,
          "is_local": true,
          "history_year_count": 3,
          "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
          "control_line_year": null,
          "recent_min_trend": 7.0,
          "probability_source": "binary_college_fallback",
          "aggregation_mode": "college_fallback",
          "historical_score_summary": {
            "years": [
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            "latest_min_score": 639.0,
            "recent_min_score_average": 635.0,
            "student_score": 635.0,
            "gap_to_latest_min": -4.0,
            "gap_to_recent_min_average": 0.0
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        },
        "shap_explanation": null,
        "recommendation": "录取概率低",
        "long_recommendation": "当前录取参考概率较低,按近年录取情况看仍有明显压力。你的分数比近三年最低线低4分,但仍高于近三年均值线0分。虽然你的分数高出本省控制线172分,但目标院校近年门槛整体更高。本次按院校层历史录取数据估算。院校层次高、竞争强,通常会把整体录取分数要求拉高。",
        "major_name": null,
        "tier_name": null,
        "tier_label": null,
        "tier_min_probability": null,
        "education_level": "bachelor",
        "coverage_level": "full",
        "data_through_year": 2025,
        "risk_label": "高风险",
        "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
        "chance_score": 0.36543654365436545,
        "interpretation": "历史条件下机会偏低,建议仅作为冲刺梯度参考。",
        "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和院校历史数据范围内,模型给出 0.37 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数低于最新可用最低线 4 分,高于近年最低线均值 0 分。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
        "historical_years": [
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ],
        "plan_coverage": {
          "status": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
          "ratio": null,
          "matched_plan_rows": null,
          "covered_plan_total": null,
          "school_plan_total": null
        },
        "fallback_path": {
          "applied": false,
          "requested_level": "college",
          "effective_level": "college",
          "strategy": "college_fallback",
          "reason": null
        },
        "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
      },
      {
        "college_name": "南京航空航天大学",
        "admission_probability": 0.33297580741270411,
        "evidence": {
          "recent_3y_min_score": [
            645.0,
            643.66666666666663
          ],
          "score_gap": -9.066666666666606,
          "score_gap_original": -10.0,
          "province_line_gap": 172.0,
          "is_985": false,
          "is_211": true,
          "is_dual_class": true,
          "college_rank": 47,
          "plan_enrollment": 633,
          "plan_coverage_ratio": 1.0,
          "student_rank": null,
          "historical_min_rank": 5985.0,
          "rank_gap": 0.0,
          "rank_ratio": 0.0,
          "rank_missing": true,
          "rank_source": "missing",
          "rank_data_year": null,
          "score_source": "request",
          "score_data_year": null,
          "is_local": true,
          "history_year_count": 3,
          "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
          "control_line_year": null,
          "recent_min_trend": 2.0,
          "probability_source": "binary_college_fallback",
          "aggregation_mode": "college_fallback",
          "historical_score_summary": {
            "years": [
              2023,
              2024,
              2025
            ],
            "latest_min_score": 645.0,
            "recent_min_score_average": 643.66666666666663,
            "student_score": 635.0,
            "gap_to_latest_min": -10.0,
            "gap_to_recent_min_average": -8.6666666666666288
          }
        },
        "shap_explanation": null,
        "recommendation": "录取概率低",
        "long_recommendation": "当前录取参考概率较低,按近年录取情况看仍有明显压力。你的分数比近三年最低线低10分,也比近三年均值线低8.7分。虽然你的分数高出本省控制线172分,但目标院校近年门槛整体更高。本次按院校层历史录取数据估算。院校层次高、竞争强,通常会把整体录取分数要求拉高。",
        "major_name": null,
        "tier_name": null,
        "tier_label": null,
        "tier_min_probability": null,
        "education_level": "bachelor",
        "coverage_level": "full",
        "data_through_year": 2025,
        "risk_label": "高风险",
        "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
        "chance_score": 0.33297580741270411,
        "interpretation": "历史条件下机会较低,建议谨慎填报并补充更稳妥志愿。",
        "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和院校历史数据范围内,模型给出 0.33 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数低于最新可用最低线 10 分,低于近年最低线均值 8.7 分。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
        "historical_years": [
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ],
        "plan_coverage": {
          "status": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
          "ratio": null,
          "matched_plan_rows": null,
          "covered_plan_total": null,
          "school_plan_total": null
        },
        "fallback_path": {
          "applied": false,
          "requested_level": "college",
          "effective_level": "college",
          "strategy": "college_fallback",
          "reason": null
        },
        "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
      },
      {
        "college_name": "东南大学",
        "admission_probability": 0.25676378772112385,
        "evidence": {
          "recent_3y_min_score": [
            644.0,
            645.66666666666663
          ],
          "score_gap": -10.166666666666515,
          "score_gap_original": -9.0,
          "province_line_gap": 172.0,
          "is_985": true,
          "is_211": true,
          "is_dual_class": true,
          "college_rank": 20,
          "plan_enrollment": 844,
          "plan_coverage_ratio": 1.0,
          "student_rank": null,
          "historical_min_rank": 6362.0,
          "rank_gap": 0.0,
          "rank_ratio": 0.0,
          "rank_missing": true,
          "rank_source": "missing",
          "rank_data_year": null,
          "score_source": "request",
          "score_data_year": null,
          "is_local": true,
          "history_year_count": 3,
          "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
          "control_line_year": null,
          "recent_min_trend": -3.0,
          "probability_source": "binary_college_fallback",
          "aggregation_mode": "college_fallback",
          "historical_score_summary": {
            "years": [
              2023,
              2024,
              2025
            ],
            "latest_min_score": 644.0,
            "recent_min_score_average": 645.66666666666663,
            "student_score": 635.0,
            "gap_to_latest_min": -9.0,
            "gap_to_recent_min_average": -10.666666666666629
          }
        },
        "shap_explanation": null,
        "recommendation": "录取概率低",
        "long_recommendation": "当前录取参考概率较低,按近年录取情况看仍有明显压力。你的分数比近三年最低线低9分,也比近三年均值线低10.7分。虽然你的分数高出本省控制线172分,但目标院校近年门槛整体更高。本次按院校层历史录取数据估算。院校层次高、竞争强,通常会把整体录取分数要求拉高。",
        "major_name": null,
        "tier_name": null,
        "tier_label": null,
        "tier_min_probability": null,
        "education_level": "bachelor",
        "coverage_level": "full",
        "data_through_year": 2025,
        "risk_label": "高风险",
        "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
        "chance_score": 0.25676378772112385,
        "interpretation": "历史条件下机会较低,建议谨慎填报并补充更稳妥志愿。",
        "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和院校历史数据范围内,模型给出 0.26 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数低于最新可用最低线 9 分,低于近年最低线均值 10.7 分。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
        "historical_years": [
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ],
        "plan_coverage": {
          "status": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
          "ratio": null,
          "matched_plan_rows": null,
          "covered_plan_total": null,
          "school_plan_total": null
        },
        "fallback_path": {
          "applied": false,
          "requested_level": "college",
          "effective_level": "college",
          "strategy": "college_fallback",
          "reason": null
        },
        "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
      },
      {
        "college_name": "南京大学",
        "admission_probability": 0.14505624629958558,
        "evidence": {
          "recent_3y_min_score": [
            658.0,
            661.0
          ],
          "score_gap": -25.100000000000023,
          "score_gap_original": -23.0,
          "province_line_gap": 172.0,
          "is_985": true,
          "is_211": true,
          "is_dual_class": true,
          "college_rank": 6,
          "plan_enrollment": 753,
          "plan_coverage_ratio": 1.0,
          "student_rank": null,
          "historical_min_rank": 2414.0,
          "rank_gap": 0.0,
          "rank_ratio": 0.0,
          "rank_missing": true,
          "rank_source": "missing",
          "rank_data_year": null,
          "score_source": "request",
          "score_data_year": null,
          "is_local": true,
          "history_year_count": 3,
          "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
          "control_line_year": null,
          "recent_min_trend": -6.0,
          "probability_source": "binary_college_fallback",
          "aggregation_mode": "college_fallback",
          "historical_score_summary": {
            "years": [
              2023,
              2024,
              2025
            ],
            "latest_min_score": 658.0,
            "recent_min_score_average": 661.0,
            "student_score": 635.0,
            "gap_to_latest_min": -23.0,
            "gap_to_recent_min_average": -26.0
          }
        },
        "shap_explanation": null,
        "recommendation": "录取概率低",
        "long_recommendation": "当前录取参考概率较低,按近年录取情况看仍有明显压力。你的分数比近三年最低线低23分,也比近三年均值线低26分。虽然你的分数高出本省控制线172分,但目标院校近年门槛整体更高。本次按院校层历史录取数据估算。院校层次高、竞争强,通常会把整体录取分数要求拉高。",
        "major_name": null,
        "tier_name": null,
        "tier_label": null,
        "tier_min_probability": null,
        "education_level": "bachelor",
        "coverage_level": "full",
        "data_through_year": 2025,
        "risk_label": "高风险",
        "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
        "chance_score": 0.14505624629958558,
        "interpretation": "历史条件下机会较低,建议谨慎填报并补充更稳妥志愿。",
        "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和院校历史数据范围内,模型给出 0.15 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数低于最新可用最低线 23 分,低于近年最低线均值 26 分。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
        "historical_years": [
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ],
        "plan_coverage": {
          "status": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
          "ratio": null,
          "matched_plan_rows": null,
          "covered_plan_total": null,
          "school_plan_total": null
        },
        "fallback_path": {
          "applied": false,
          "requested_level": "college",
          "effective_level": "college",
          "strategy": "college_fallback",
          "reason": null
        },
        "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
      }
    ],
    "meta": {
      "total_colleges": 10,
      "student_score": 635.0,
      "student_province": "江苏",
      "local_colleges": 8,
      "score_diff_min": 4.0,
      "score_diff_median": 12.5,
      "prefer_local": false,
      "college_provinces": [
        "江苏",
        "上海"
      ],
      "model_version": "v1.1.0",
      "prediction_year": 2026,
      "requested_year": 2026,
      "history_through_year": 2025,
      "data_through_year": 2025,
      "historical_years": [
        2023,
        2024,
        2025
      ],
      "interpretation_policy_version": "2026-08",
      "policy_constraints": {
        "status": "PARTIALLY_EVALUATED",
        "evaluated": [
          "province",
          "subject_type",
          "batch"
        ],
        "not_evaluated": [
          "subject_selection",
          "physical_exam",
          "single_subject_score",
          "campus",
          "tuition",
          "transfer_policy"
        ],
        "notice": "未评估项需以当年省级考试院和院校招生章程为准。"
      },
      "education_level": "bachelor",
      "coverage_level": "full",
      "risk_policy_version": "legacy-v1",
      "candidate_pool": {
        "total_colleges": 10,
        "feature_rows": 10
      },
      "rank_source": "missing",
      "rank_missing": true,
      "effective_rank": null,
      "student_rank": null,
      "score_source": "request",
      "score_data_year": null,
      "effective_score": 635.0,
      "score_segments_through_year": null,
      "control_line_source": "historical_admission_line",
      "control_lines_through_year": null,
      "data_sources_through_year": {
        "admission_lines": 2025,
        "major_admission_lines": null,
        "enrollment_plans": 2026,
        "province_control_lines": null,
        "score_segments": null
      },
      "fallback": {
        "applied": false,
        "strategy": null,
        "requested_year": 2026,
        "effective_year": 2026,
        "requested_major_name": null,
        "effective_major_name": null,
        "reason": null
      }
    },
    "disclaimer": "本预测结果综合历年真实招生数据、院校录取趋势与机器学习模型推算而成,仅供志愿填报参考。建议结合当年政策、院校最新官方信息及个人实际情况综合判断,最终录取结果以各省考试院和院校官方公布为准。"
  }
}